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The Future: 2005 &
Beyond
Step into the Future | by Brenda Miller
Although futurists usually look five, 10, 20 years and beyond to forecast what to
expect as future possibilities, we also are often asked for short-term analyses of
what the next year will bring.
Recently a group of Futurists from the World Future Society's Minnesota Chapter,
the largest and most active chapter of futurists in the world, compiled a list of
890 items of trend indicators as to probabilities of what to expect for 2005. From
the 890 items that were discussed, 376 were selected and ranked as to what is most
likely to occur in 2005, by the end of the decade, and beyond.
The 10 subject areas included: urban affairs, education, medical technology, human
relations, societal trends, organizational and management trends, technology, spiritual
and religious trends, values and ethics, and environmental and energy advances. 2005
looks to be a pivotal year for many industries and societal changes, specifically
in technology.
Forecasts for 2005
In urban areas, and especially highways, increased congestion and more surveillance
and remote policing is foreseen, along with photo "cops," street cameras
and biometric screening, such as face profiling. Transponders and other tracking
devices in cars will help drivers, but will raise issues regarding privacy and the
Patriot Act, with concerns that citizens will experience fewer civil liberties and
the foreboding of Big Brother watching.
Gas prices could rise above $2.50 per gallon, negatively impacting our economy. This
will create more demand for hybrid electric vehicles. The wild card is if OPEC depress
oil prices below $50 a barrel to keep gas prices under $2 per gallon to ensure alternative
fuels are not funded.
Expect to see fuel cell systems co-generating power and heat appearing first in Japan
in 2005, followed by commercialization of portable appliances powered by miniature
fuel cells in 2007, with fuel cell cars emerging around 2010.
In technology, more imbedded systems will show up in industrial products, computer-based
appliances and home management systems. Cell phones will feature more data and entertainment
applications, and TV and the Internet will converge into a single unit.
Medical technology will rapidly expand with implantable devices and IDs being common.
In 2005 intelligent devices supporting medical delivery and diagnostics will occur,
as well as an increase in minimally invasive surgery.
We will see a faster movement to online education and more alternative schools as
parents react to classroom size increases and additional pressure for enhanced student
performance.
Socially, we will experience a greater spread between the wealthy and poor, as employees
suffer a decrease in benefits, business management becomes more automated and Americans
lose more jobs to offshore outsourcing. Anti-war demonstrations will increase as
the population remains politically divided, and political issues will increasingly
be thought of and fought on moral terms, with a more intense fight to keep God in
the pledge of allegiance.
The Minnesota Futurists forecast an increase of non-citizens in the population, with
legislation dealing with immigrant aliens in the U.S., and illegal border crossings
becoming larger issues.
Outlook for Minnesota & U.S.
In Minnesota, we will see more wind power energy, and hybrid technology will be applied
to boats. Bus lines will be extended into more rural areas, and light rail will receive
renewed legislative attention. Smoking will be banned in restaurants and public buildings
in Minnesota, eventually extending nationwide.
So what does all this mean to a society undergoing an accelerated rate of change
with the assumption of using technology to ease our lives. Growing up in a gratification
society means young adults will be expecting immediate rewards. There will be an
increase of intergenerational conflict on moral issues. Senior citizen power will
increase as the baby boomers retire, while a new generation of children will have
greater sociological impact on the future than the baby boomers do now.
With medical advances, the increasing population of the elderly will enjoy longer
and a better quality of life, led by artificial organ and bone implants. The movements
of both materialism and spiritualism will continue to grow with a major paradigm
shift occurring in religious beliefs, as mainstream religion becomes more moderate
and spirituality more secular.
Probabilities After 2010
These 2005 indicators give us a look to fast-approaching probabilities starting in
the second decade. Nuclear power will become a viable alternative energy source again.
Year-round schooling will be common with expanded hours. Portable gene chips will
be implanted for treating specific ailments, medication will target individual genome
conditions, and initial trials on bloodless organ repairs will be initiated via stem
cell technology. Yet, with all this technology we will see an equal acceleration
of alternative medicine and healing techniques.
Beyond this decade, auto collision avoidance technology, breathalyzers in dashboards,
and online systems will eventually be standard in all disposable cars, with recyclable
components that degrade at will. GPS (global positioning systems) tracking devices
will not only be offered in cars to navigate, but will one day be readily available
to be imbedded in our children.
The future also holds the Dick Tracy voice-activated watch, highlighted in comic
strips in the '50s; and robotics at work and at home will be commonplace, as now
seen by children in morning cartoons. Once seen only in movies, regular transport
of passengers into space will become a reality.
What once was science fiction will become real life. The question we may find ourselves
asking, like Keanu Reeves' character Neo in the movie, The Matrix: "What is
reality and what is illusion in a world of cyber intelligence?"
Brenda Miller is a forecaster and whole-systems design strategist. As a Certified
Master Professional Futurist, and Certified Trainer and Educator in Emotional Intelligence,
she specializes and helps people, businesses, and organizations see, understand,
and respond to change so they can creatively design a brighter future. She is president
and chief global strategist of New Crotona, a Futures-based consultancy. Ms. Miller is president of
the Minnesota Futurists Association and a professional member of the World Futurists
and the Association of Professional Futurists. For more information, contact her
at (651) 731-4037 or e-mail brendamiller@bigfoot.com.
Copyright © 2005 Brenda Miller. All rights reserved. |
| January 2005 |
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