| A Futurist: The Nearest Thing
to a 21st century Oracle Step into the Future | by Brenda Miller "What is a futurist?" I am often asked. At first, it almost registers as if the questioner knows, but invariably, like an itch that needs to be scratched, the question begs to be answered. A futurist is often misinterpreted as a psychic, tarot reader and soothsayer. Like the great Greek Oracles of Delphi, Dodona, Trophonius and Latona, surely a futurist must see the future, if not predict it, otherwise what good is one? And so begins my explanation to them. The earliest roots of Futures Studies go back to esoteric teachings and prophecy. Babylonian tablets in 4000 BC cited how destructive society was and gave omens for the future. Pharaohs in 3000 BC forecasted seasons and Nile floodings. Aristotle in 384 BC formulized deductive logic, used by futurists today to forecast. Nostradamus made predictions, and Plato spoke of preferable futures societies. Therefore, it is easy to see how futurists are mistakenly looked upon as modern-day oracles. In reality, a futurist is a professional skilled in the studies of the future, which is comprised of both an art and science of understanding emerging change, using methodologies, analysis, and other futures tools that forecast--not predict--possible, probable and preferable futures. Like the ancient mariners, a small party of explorers were sent ahead to alert the rest if danger were ahead. Likewise, futurists in a sense alert society, businesses, governments and individuals to what lies on the horizon and beyond to maintain or improve the social condition and life-sustaining capacities of the Earth. We scope out the terrain for those who dare or fear to look. Transforming the future The future is not predetermined and already fixed as is often argued. Otherwise, we would not have the foresight to foresee what will happen if we do not change it. Futurists seldom predict outcomes, because there is no single, unconditional or certain future--the future is being reshaped and redefined moment by moment. The future does not just happen to us as innocent bystanders. The very reason for studying the future is to enhance our abilities to transform the future into a better one, to assist decision-makers in understanding the potential consequences of their present and future decisions, and to act accordingly. As futurists, we know the future is not 100 percent predictable, mostly because of unexpected and unanticipated consequences, and because of free will. What we do is forecast what might happen in the future, so that people can decide what they want to make happen. Once the possibilities and probabilities are identified, we can help make their desires--their preferred future--become reality, and prevent the undesired possibilities from ever being realized. We often are asked to discuss short and long-term trends and events that will shape the future. These will be explored in future columns. However, some of these major future shapers, such as in technological innovations and demographics, are more important and evident than others. Futurology, the study of possible futures, can provide extraordinary guidance for society in preparing for the changes ahead. We can actually plan not just months or years, but decades and even centuries ahead. One U.S. institute's primary focus is to study what society will look like 1,000 years from now. This is of little comfort to many in such challenging times. "We should all be concerned about the future because we shall have to spend the rest of our lives there." -- Charles F. Kettering Who hires futurists Futurists consult individuals, businesses and organizations, but also governments to help scope and meet the future needs of society. Futurists have consulted NASA regarding the future of space exploration. Technologically innovative companies, for example, receive guidance on possible consumer needs so they can meet those needs with new products and services. Likewise, futurists are asked to look at divergent issues ranging from the aging of society, to strategies to winning a future war, to Hollywood movie themes, such as Steven Spielberg's futuristic movie, Minority Report. Science fiction writers and futurists have many similarities in how they look at the world and its changing landscape. Both have to think in non-linear ways, ask what-if questions and ponder wild-card scenarios that few others will entertain. The tragedy of 9/11 terrorist attacks, or a third world war, are examples of events that have or would forever change the world around us. Futurists must look at and entertain even the bleakest possible futures so we can help avoid or minimize them, by preparing for them if they ever occur. Futurists range from popular writers who focus on trends, to researchers in think tanks, to professional consultants, from generalists in a cross-section of disciplines to highly technical experts in areas like nanotechnology, information technology and healthcare. Co-Creating the future Similar to quantum physics, futurology's basic principles are that many possibilities exist for any future time period. The future can be changed, planned for, shared, steered, and yes, even controlled to an extent; and that every decision will have impacts, consequences and unintended results. Everything we do and every decision we make may affect every other person around the world. We can no longer hold the belief that we live in a bubble unaffected by each other. We are interconnected to society and the world like never before, and that interconnectedness is profound. Major shifts and outcomes can occur due to subtle and seemingly harmless influences. In 1963, theoretical physicist Edward Lorenz concluded that the smallest variation in temperature or wind speed could drastically alter weather systems. Dubbed the "Butterfly Effect," it is one of the catch phrases of chaos theory. Thus, it is said a monarch butterfly can flap its wing and cause a tornado 1,000 miles away. The future is unseen because we are constantly co-creating and changing it. Yet, it is a real force that will directly have a profound impact on all of us. Our very survival as a species and a planet depends on futurology: It alerts us to species extinction rates, to environmental devastation and to human holocaust, while also alerting us to the seemingly mundane aspects of life such as how long a fashion trend will take to get from Los Angeles to the Midwest. Change is happening at such an accelerated rate that business and individuals will need to be ahead of the curve to sustain themselves and thrive. Those that do not understand the dynamic processes of change will be left behind. A technical product's current life span on the shelf is less than three months. Change is happening at such an accelerating rate we can barely keep up. What will people's needs be in five years, 10 years and 20 years? What will the economy look like? The intersection of technological developments merging with the changes on the political, economic, social, cultural and spiritual horizon will force us to enter a brave new world. We will have many alternative futures to choose from and the decisions we make and actions we take will decide future governance of countries, the sustainability of our natural resources, the changing population growth and birth rate, to the quality of the food we eat, to where we go to work. Future in America In 15 years, 50 percent of the work force will operate out of home. As a result of that shift, cities' infrastructures will be shaken as workers no longer will be running to local fast food places to eat lunch and purchasing work dress clothes as they do now. Department stores as we know them will be scaled down, if not almost eliminated, by Internet purchasing power. Homes will be high tech, designed with the home office in mind. The challenges and chaos surrounding this change are endless. Yet, this is one of thousands, if not millions, of changes large and small that will affect how we live and work in the future. So, why are we not looking and paying more attention to the future? In our fast-paced world, people do not have the time; that, coupled with the insecurity of change and denial, seems to be the catalyst for why society sticks its collective head in the sand. Once we know that nothing is there to hurt us, that the future is what we collectively make it and decide it will be, then we can sleep more soundly, and work and live more consciously. When change, and its accompanying varied emotions come up, we can have a dialogue with ourselves and each other that acknowledges that what we are feeling may be instinctual fear or anger, and we can say to ourselves, in a non-attached way, "Oh, isn't this interesting. We've been here before, and I can either choose to accept it or change it. After all, it's my future and my choice." Overcoming fears Some simple steps I recommend people take to become more comfortable with change is to put their watch on their opposite wrist for one week, write with their opposite hand for a few hours, and get from one side of the room to the other by walking backwards. This may seem absurd or at the very least awkward for some. The goal is to become more comfortable with uncomfortability, uncertainty, ambiguity, complexity and chaos -- and see and unlearn the patterns they are often stuck in. The only certain thing about the future is change. Instead of fighting it, we can embrace change and by doing so learn to trust our own internal intelligence as well as change our outdated mode of thinking. Einstein is often quoted as saying, "No problem can be solved from the same consciousness that created it." All individuals, whatever our jobs are, whether as CEO, middle management or support personnel, have an impact, directly or indirectly, on the unfolding future of a business, on our families, our local neighborhoods and in the global community by the decisions we make every day, the products we purchase, the amount of energy we use and by other life choices. We are the change agents we seek. We are what we have been waiting for. The future lies inside each of us. If we search and plan well enough, who knows, we may find utopia, or at the very least co-create one. Brenda Miller is a forecaster and whole-systems design strategist. As a Certified Master Professional Futurist, and Certified Trainer and Educator in Emotional Intelligence, she specializes and helps people, businesses and organizations see, understand and respond to change so they can creatively design a brighter future. She consults in the areas of futuring, competitive analysis and design, anticipatory and scenario planning, product development and positioning, strategic messaging, vision and mission design, team building and leadership coaching. She speaks at conferences and seminars on a wide range of emerging global trends and issues. She is President and Chief Global Strategist of New Crotona, a Futures-based consultancy. She is President of the Minnesota Futurists Association and a Professional Member of the World Futurists and the Association of Professional Futurists. For more information, contact her at (651) 731-4037 or e-mail brendamiller@bigfoot.com Copyright © 2004 Brenda Miller, all rights reserved. |
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Nov 2004 |
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